The US’s inaction when Israel attacked the capital of Qatar has left the country and other Gulf states skeptical about Washington’s security commitment to the region.
Qatar is home to the largest US military base in the Middle East, al-Udeid, and has spent billions of dollars buying advanced air defense systems from Washington. In May, Qatar rolled out the red carpet for President Donald Trump, signing major investment deals and gifting the US government a Boeing aircraft.
These factors were expected to help Qatar further strengthen its alliance with the US, reinforcing Washington’s security commitment to Doha. However, that expectation was suddenly met with much skepticism when Israel on September 9 airstrikes on Hamas leaders in Doha killed six people, including a Qatari security officer, while the US took no significant action to protect its ally.
US forces in the region did not fire to intercept the Israeli missiles, even though the al-Udeid base was only about 30km away from the target. This is leading Arab countries to believe that Washington will not interfere with Tel Aviv’s operations in the Middle East, even if they take place on the sovereign territory of its allies.
“This could have a significant impact on how countries in the region view the US security commitment,” Ted Singer, former head of the CIA’s Middle East operations, told Middle East Eye.
Similar to Qatar, other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain have long relied on the security umbrella that the US has committed to providing for the region. They allow the US to set up military bases on their territory, purchase weapons from this country, with the expectation that Washington will protect them from all threats, especially from Iran.
“They have made great efforts to promote US interests and the Israeli airstrike on Qatar is eroding confidence in this formula. Is it still worth investing billions of dollars in the US?”, commented Ms. Merissa Khurma, a researcher at the Baker Institute, USA.
In Qatar, the people of Doha feel betrayed, because they are not only allies of the US, but also trying to promote peace talks to end the Gaza war, the goal of Mr. Trump. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, usually a calm person, also showed indignation when holding a press conference about the attack.
“Benjamin Netanyahu said he was going to redraw the map of the Middle East,” Al Thani said, referring to the Israeli prime minister. “Is the message here that Israel is going to redraw the entire Gulf?”
Israel, also a US ally, has been at odds with many Gulf states and has yet to normalize relations with many. During his first term, Mr. Trump brokered a rapprochement with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. However, the effort has stalled since Israel launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, causing heavy casualties among Palestinian civilians.
Arab countries were not too concerned when Israel attacked Iran in June, because Tehran is a common enemy. But as the Arab bloc benefits from Iran’s weakening influence, they are becoming increasingly uneasy as Israel seeks to further exploit its military and intelligence advantages in the region.
“Gulf states are concerned that Israel is too militarily strong and lacks restraint, which could spark conflicts that could destabilize the region in the future,” said Asher Fredman, director of Israel at the Abraham Accords Peace Institute.
Analysts say the impact of Israel’s airstrikes will not stop in Qatar.
The Israeli airstrike was seen as “crossing a red line” for the entire Gulf region, as Qatar is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), an organization whose core element is collective security, said Hasan Alhasan, a Middle East policy fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Bahrain.
“Israel has now demonstrated that it is a direct threat to Gulf security, and the countries in the region do not have the capacity to deal with it. What happened to Qatar will push the GCC countries to reconsider their relations with the US,” said Alhasan.
“You are an Arab country that hosts the US, and then a US ally attacks Qatar, you will definitely question the US security umbrella that you have spent a lot of money to maintain,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
It is unclear how the Israeli airstrike will affect the stalled ceasefire talks with Hamas. But trust between the US and its Gulf partners has been damaged, and the extent of the impact will depend significantly on President Trump’s message to allies.
President Trump on September 9 expressed his disapproval of Israel’s airstrike on Qatar, saying he tried but “unfortunately it was too late” to stop Tel Aviv’s actions. He is expected to meet Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in New York soon to discuss the issue.
“This is an important test,” said Bader Al-Saif, an associate professor of history at Kuwait University. “If Gulf leaders do not act decisively now, they will only become part of the Israeli-led orbit of power and the Israeli-controlled regional order.”
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