The Toronto Blue Jays have had a promising start, but it’s been a recent slump that has exposed a deeper problem — a “disease” that lies just beneath the surface of the roster, according to analysis by Ian Hunter (BlueJaysNation).
After opening the season 12-8, the Blue Jays have fallen into a slump: they’ve lost 12 of their last 16 games. While some of those losses came because of better opponents, many times they’ve “lost” wins at crucial moments.
Despite a string of three dramatic comebacks (like Guerrero Jr.’s game-winning homer, Nathan Lukes’ home run), the opposite has been true: four straight bullpen losses: they’ve given up leads and been turned around.
Some early observers thought the Blue Jays were in a bullpen crisis. Indeed, high-pressure pitchers like Yimi García, Brendon Little, and Jeff Hoffman are having a tough time – but the bigger issue is the offense.
Hunter notes that while the Blue Jays’ bullpen ERA is better than last season (4.33 this year compared to 5.23 at the same point in 2024), they are still “fragile” because they are constantly using their key pitchers to protect fragile leads.
A large part of this season’s Blue Jays lineup is designed to suppress points rather than “storm” them offensively. According to Hunter, many of the team’s key players are strong defensive players: Andrés Giménez, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Myles Straw… They help suppress the opponent’s points but do not bring much resources to the offense.
The bigger problem: The Blue Jays are having trouble converting chances. They still have the ability to get people on base, but when they do get people in scoring position (RISP), they often can’t take advantage — many have pointed out that the problem is “hitting to the plate,” not just “getting people on base.”
Hunter quotes: “The Blue Jays have averaged just 3.53 runs per game this year — one of the lowest in MLB.”
That’s a much lower number than in previous seasons, suggesting that the current model is unlikely to be sustainable if it continues to rely heavily on pitching and defense.
While the team has stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Anthony Santander, and George Springer, Hunter asks: “Who will carry the bulk of the offense if it’s just those three guys?”
There aren’t many strong options on the rest of the lineup, especially in important offensive games.
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