They played all their cards in the Wild Card series — and now the Yankees are facing the dangerous consequences of that “all-in.” After depleting their pitching force in the battle with the Red Sox, the New York team decided to give Luis Gil the ALDS starting job — a choice that was both full of potential and extremely risky.
A Turning Point Gamble
The decision to put faith in Gil was not a safe choice — it was a gamble with “heavy weapons.” At 27, Gil had high expectations after a stellar season last year, but this year he has lost some of his consistency. When “on,” he is the embodiment of destructive power; when “off,” he is easily exposed for mistakes and loss of control.
Gil’s 2025 season is a series of peaks and valleys. He threw just 57 innings — a number that was plagued by injuries. Statistically, his 3.32 ERA suggests that despite his issues, he has maintained his ability to limit damage. But his K/9 (strikeouts) plummeted — from ~10.15 to ~6.47 — and his walk rate spiked to ~5.21, which is a red flag for his control.
Analytic rates Gil in the lower percentile for key metrics like “chase rate” and walk rate. In other words: he has power — but lacks accuracy.
Why would the Yankees take the risk?
They could have gone with someone else — Will Warren — who has gone 162.1 innings this season with a ~4.44 ERA, offering stability rather than volatility. But Boone and his coaching staff saw something else: a “burning” Gil who could turn things around. In the postseason, explosive hitting often makes the difference.
With a starting pitching unit like Gerrit Cole still recovering, and mainstays Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and Cam Schlittler all used extensively in the previous round, the Yankees had few options left. The lack of players forced them to take a higher risk — and bet on individual explosiveness.
The pressure from Gerrit Cole’s shadow
It’s impossible not to mention Gerrit Cole — the key pitcher the Yankees desperately wanted in the ALDS. He was absent due to injury, leaving a huge void both on the field and in the team’s psyche. Without Cole, all eyes are on Gil, which doubles the pressure.
Will the gamble pay off?
If Gil has a day of his own—hitting late fastballs, keeping control—the Yankees can make it happen. A no-hitter? Not impossible. But a string of walks, a couple of mistimed homers, and things can slip away.
The Yankees are riding volatility, so to speak—using Gil’s volatility as a weapon—while imbuing every pitch with a winning mentality.
The postseason has never been easier
Betting on an unstable weapon is an option that only comes in October. In an environment where mistakes are fiercely exposed, and every pitch counts, the team that takes the risk has a chance to step outside the normal.
The Yankees won the Wild Card with courage. They entered the ALDS with faith in Gil—in the moments of brilliance rather than the calculation of safety. But the price of failure, if it happens, could be the entire season.
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