As the Cleveland Guardians approach a critical offseason, one question looms larger than any trade rumor or free agent pursuit: extending Cade Smith. It may seem obvious—Smith is arguably the most valuable piece of the bullpen—but the stakes couldn’t be higher. The 25-year-old right-hander is on the cusp of skyrocketing in value, and if the Guardians fail to act decisively, they could be paying a hefty price in the near future.
Smith, who has emerged as Cleveland’s full-time closer, is entering his final pre-arbitration season in 2026. That status keeps his salary near league minimum for now, but it also gives the Guardians a rare opportunity to lock him into the core of the roster before arbitration and free agency drive his price sky-high. Relievers’ arbitration salaries often correlate directly with save totals, and Smith’s success in closing games only strengthens his negotiating leverage.
The numbers paint a clear picture. Smith was one of the top rookie relievers in 2024, producing 2.7 fWAR and even earning a down-ballot Cy Young vote. He followed it up with another 2.7 fWAR campaign in 2025 while recording 16 saves. FanGraphs’ free-agent dollar projection estimates Smith’s combined value over the past two seasons at $43.2 million—$21.5 million in 2024 and $21.7 million in 2025. These figures are not just impressive—they signal the price the Guardians might have to pay if they wait.
While Smith knows his worth, cautionary tales abound. Pitchers like Tanner Scott and even former Guardians legend Cody Allen demonstrate how quickly a reliever’s value can spiral downward. The clock is ticking: Cleveland must secure Smith to ensure the bullpen remains a cornerstone of the team’s long-term strategy.
So, what would a deal look like? History suggests a multi-year contract, likely five years, with at least one club option and built-in escalators. While the total sum will matter, guaranteed cash and contract structure are critical. Based on his performance, projections suggest a deal could range around $35 million over five years, with Smith leveraging $5–$10 million more in guaranteed money. Such a contract balances risk and reward—Smith secures financial stability, while the Guardians maintain cost certainty and roster continuity.
Complicating matters, Cleveland operates with one of the lowest payrolls in Major League Baseball. Any large commitment is scrutinized closely, but Smith represents a unique case. Unlike a typical reliever, his combination of elite performance, youth, and future upside makes him a cornerstone worth retaining. Using funds initially earmarked for other roster moves—like Emmanuel Clase’s potential paid leave—the Guardians could effectively reallocate resources to extend Smith without jeopardizing other areas of the team.
The strategic importance of Smith cannot be overstated. With Luis Ortiz and the bullpen’s future hanging in the balance, a long-term deal secures not only a dominant closer but also a foundation around which the Guardians can build. Securing Smith now would eliminate uncertainty, allowing Cleveland to focus on complementary acquisitions and maintaining competitive momentum in 2026 and beyond.
Beyond the numbers, there’s a narrative angle that resonates with fans. Locking in Smith signals the Guardians’ commitment to winning, to stability, and to rewarding performance. It reassures a loyal fanbase that the front office is proactive, not reactive. Smith’s extension would be more than a contract—it would be a statement of intent.
In short, this offseason is shaping up to be a defining moment for the Guardians. Cade Smith’s extension isn’t just a good idea—it’s essential. Failure to act could cost the team both financially and competitively, while striking a deal secures one of the most dynamic relievers in baseball for years to come. For Cleveland, the choice is clear: make Smith a long-term Guardian, or risk watching a rising star walk away.
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