Tigers’ Playoff Outlook Soars as FanGraphs Projects 95.6% Chance to Win AL Central
DETROIT — With less than two weeks left in the regular season, the Detroit Tigers are no longer just a feel-good story—they’re a legitimate contender. According to the latest FanGraphs projections, Detroit enters the home stretch with a 95.6 percent chance to capture the American League Central crown, a 59.4 percent chance to earn a coveted first-round playoff bye, and a 7.5 percent shot at winning the World Series.
For a franchise that hasn’t played postseason baseball since 2014, those numbers reflect a remarkable turnaround built on balanced pitching, a deep lineup, and a calm confidence that has carried the club through the grind of a six-month season.
“We’re in a good position, but nothing’s finished,” manager A.J. Hinch said before Tuesday’s game at Comerica Park. “The projections are nice, but we still have to win games and take care of our own business.”
Detroit’s strong odds are backed by performance. At 85–67, the Tigers hold a 4.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians with a magic number of seven to clinch the division. A mix of young talent and veteran stability has fueled their surge. Ace left-hander Tarik Skubal continues to dominate, while Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson anchor an offense that ranks among the league’s top five in on-base percentage since the All-Star break.
“We’ve got a lot of guys contributing,” Greene said. “Everyone knows their role and we’re playing as a team. That’s what it takes this time of year.”
The push for a playoff bye—awarded to the top two division winners in each league—adds another layer of urgency. A first-round bye would give Detroit extra rest and allow Hinch to set his pitching rotation for the Division Series. With FanGraphs giving them nearly a 60 percent chance, the Tigers are in prime position to lock down the No. 2 seed if they finish strong.
Meanwhile, the broader World Series picture remains crowded. The Los Angeles Dodgers currently boast the best championship probability at 13.5 percent, followed closely by American League heavyweights like the Orioles and Astros. Detroit’s 7.5 percent chance might appear modest by comparison, but it signals that the Tigers are more than a longshot.
“They’ve got the arms to make noise,” one AL scout said. “When you have a rotation led by someone like Skubal and a bullpen that’s settled in, you can beat anyone in a short series.”
Veteran infielder Javier Báez echoed that sentiment. “We respect everyone, but we fear no one,” he said. “October is about playing your best baseball at the right time. We feel like we can compete with anybody.”
Detroit fans have responded in kind. Comerica Park has been electric in recent weeks, with attendance climbing and playoff buzz growing louder each night. Chants of “Let’s Go Tigers” fill downtown as fans dream of a deep October run.
Hinch appreciates the excitement but keeps his players focused on the daily task. “Projections don’t win games,” he said. “We control our fate by how we play.”
With the postseason fast approaching, the Tigers’ mix of youth, pitching depth, and quiet swagger has turned a rebuilding club into a legitimate threat. Whether they can chase down the Dodgers’ league-leading World Series odds remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: baseball in Detroit is alive and roaring again.
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